last update: 2018 08 30Industrial Revolution began in Europe in the late 18th century.
In 1856, Gregor Mendel began his work on inherited traits as a Catholic monk in a monastery.
In 1859, Charles Darwin published On the Origin of Species.
In 1927, Nikolai Koltsov proposed that inherited traits would be inherited via a "giant hereditary molecule".
In 1953, the first transistor computer became operational.
In 1958, Francis Crick stated the central dogma of molecular biology.
In the 1990s began the open source software revolution.
In the 2000s began the social media revolution with the web.
In 2015, a revolution began in genetic engineering with CRISPR/Cas9 related technologies.
In 2017, a women received a bionic hand with sense of touch.
In 2018, the open source hardware revolution might have begun.
In 2018, paper jam in printers is still a problem.
Some problems are more difficult than others.
Some solutions are more profitable than others.
Some efforts are more supported than others.
The following estimated timeline corresponds to what I think is possible if the timeline was the goal of all societies on Earth.
I expect the timeline to be 5 to 25 years too early. automation and machine abilities.
Change of best practices and expected practices for:
- more automation.
- less employees.
Increase of observation by machines.
Increase of knowledge of any kind.
Increase of tolerance and safety.
Better ways to produce food by:
- using chemicals.
- using natural and increasingly genetically modified plants, fungi, algae, bacteria and other cells.
Food will have optimal quality and optimal content of nutrients and interesting tastes and no toxins.
Food will be produced in some kind of containers for various reasons like e.g.
- Automated work.
- Efficient provision and management of nutrients and water.
- Optimal climate.
- Less ground surface is required because of many floors in a large building.
- No pests.
- No weed.
- No interaction with the outside environment.
Increase of automation makes it increasingly difficult to maintain and to justify wage slavery.
Wage slavery as work for money for humane survival.
Various organizations become alternatives to classic companies regarding the making of goods and provision of services.
Begin of unknown lifespans for most persons: Death statistics are useless to deduce a death probability.
Increase of efforts to understand the brain and the relation between physical space and mental spaces.
Increase of improvements of living biological body parts:
- By chemicals.
- By genetic changes.
Increase of machine persons:
- Implantation of machine parts and robots into biological bodies.
- Replacement of biological body parts by machine body parts.
- Survival of persons by transplantation of brain parts into machines. Maybe after 2025.
- Creation or modification of persons by growing artificial brain parts and connecting them to machines or other brain parts. Maybe after 2025.
- Creation of machine persons without biological body parts. Maybe after 2025.
Use and property of land and water changes in some, many or most countries.
It has already happened in in New Zealand in 2017 although not with private property.
Brain parts are grown in machines.
The number of members of the human species might decrease from now on.
Natural body parts including natural sex organs are replaced by better machine parts.
There is no reason why machine bodies are not better and more reliable than biological bodies except in case of torture where the biologial body can die. machine abilities (artificial intelligence, AI) will increase and what abilities will be created.
There are different constraints:
- Technical, social, biological. Engineers must create the
machines and programs.
New kinds of machines will change much.
E.g. memristor (state in 2017), atomristor, artificial brain, quantum computing.
It is probably useful to predict the increase of computation power and to assume that machine abilities increase accordingly.
- Practical. What is useful and wanted ?
- Political and ethical. What is allowed ?
It is clear that machine abilities will be very diverse.
A running program has one or more abilities.
IMO the technological singularity is likely to begin with a so called narrow AI or weak AI.
The Turing test is passed when you can not tell if the conversation partner is an AI or a human.
Super intelligence requires more and will fail the Turing test until it can emulate a human person.
Super intelligence requires a world government because of its potential to harm humanity.
Separate states with their separate economies, agendas, armies and secret services are no longer acceptable in a world with one or more beings with super intelligence.
A war between beings with artificial super intelligence must be avoided.
Eventually the human brain will be part of a world that is determined by knowledge, abilities and decisions of machines.
The human brain will be used as generator of mental experiences.